Human Impact 1990
Human Impact 2050 (Current development scenario)
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In the last part of the 20th century, the Arctic has been increasingly exposed to industrial exploration and exploitation as well as tourism. The growth in oil, gas, and mineral extraction, transportation networks and non-indigenous settlements are increasingly affecting wildlife and the welfare of indigenous people across the Arctic. A considerable number of species of birds, mammals, and plants have already undergone a reduction in their populations or breeding success, or have been subjected to other types of impact in 15-20% of the land area of the Arctic. A 2050 scenario was made using reduced, stable, or increased rates of infrastructure growth as compared to the growth between 1940-1990. The scenario revealed that at even stable growth rates of industrial development, 50-80% of the Arctic may reach critical levels of anthropogenic disturbance in 2050, rendering most of these areas incompatible with traditional lifestyles of many subsistence-based indigenous communities. As most of these impacts are related to the establishment of permanent infrastructure and the exploitation of non-renewable resources, the reversibility of the estimated changes in the near future is most unlikely.
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