Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation

doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00703-x

. 2023;4(1):102.

doi: 10.1038/s43247-023-00703-x. Epub 2023 Apr 3.

Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation

Daniella Hirschfeld¹, David Behar², Robert J Nicholls³, Niamh Cahill^{4

5}, Thomas James⁶, Benjamin P Horton^{7

8}, Michelle E Portman⁹, Rob Bell^{10

11}, Matthew Campo¹², Miguel Esteban¹³, Bronwyn Goble¹⁴, Munsur Rahman¹⁵, Kwasi Appeaning Addo¹⁶, Faiz Ahmed Chundeli¹⁷, Monique Aunger¹⁸, Orly Babitsky⁹, Anders Beal¹⁹, Ray Boyle²⁰, Jiayi Fang²¹, Amir Gohar²², Susan Hanson^{3

23}, Saul Karamesines¹, M J Kim²⁴, Hilary Lohmann²⁵, Kathy McInnes²⁶, Nobuo Mimura²⁷, Doug Ramsay²⁸, Landis Wenger¹, Hiromune Yokoki²⁹

Affiliations

¹ Department of Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning, Utah State University, 4005 Old Main Hill, Logan, UT 84322-4005 USA.
² San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, San Francisco, CA USA.
³ Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK.
⁴ Department of Mathematics and Statistics, National University of Ireland, Maynooth, Ireland.
⁵ Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS), Maynooth University, Kildare, Ireland.
⁶ Geological Survey of Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Victoria, Canada.
⁷ Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore.
⁸ Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore.
⁹ MarCoast Ecosystems Integration Lab, Technion - Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, 32000 Israel.
¹⁰ Bell Adapt Ltd, Hamilton, 3210 New Zealand.
¹¹ Environmental Planning Programme, School of Social Sciences, University of Waikato, Te Whare Wananga o Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand.
¹² Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning & Public Policy, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ USA.
¹³ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan.
¹⁴ The Oceanographic Research Institute, Durban, South Africa.
¹⁵ Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM), Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Dhaka, 1000 Bangladesh.
¹⁶ University of Ghana, Accra, Ghana.
¹⁷ School of Planning and Architecture, Vijayawada, Andhra Pradesh India.
¹⁸ Geological Survey of Canada, Lands and Minerals Sector, Natural Resources Canada 601 Booth Street, Ottawa, ON Canada.
¹⁹ Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington, DC USA.
²⁰ College of Environmental Design, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley California, USA.
²¹ Institute of Remote Sensing and Earth Sciences, School of Information Science and Technology, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou, 311121 China.
²² University of the West of England, Bristol, UK.
²³ Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Southampton, Boldrewood Campus, Burgess Road, Southampton, UK.
²⁴ Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries affairs, Busan, Republic of Korea.
²⁵ Department of Planning and Natural Resources, St. Croix, USVI USA.
²⁶ Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Environment, Aspendale, VIC Australia.
²⁷ Global and Local Environment Co-creation Institute, Ibaraki University, Ibaraki, Japan.
²⁸ National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research, Auckland, New Zealand.
²⁹ Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, Ibaraki University, Ibaraki, Japan.

PMID: 38665203
PMCID: PMC11041751
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-00703-x

Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation

Daniella Hirschfeld et al. Commun Earth Environ. 2023.

. 2023;4(1):102.

doi: 10.1038/s43247-023-00703-x. Epub 2023 Apr 3.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Department of Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning, Utah State University, 4005 Old Main Hill, Logan, UT 84322-4005 USA.
² San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, San Francisco, CA USA.
³ Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK.
⁴ Department of Mathematics and Statistics, National University of Ireland, Maynooth, Ireland.
⁵ Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS), Maynooth University, Kildare, Ireland.
⁶ Geological Survey of Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Victoria, Canada.
⁷ Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore.
⁸ Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore.
⁹ MarCoast Ecosystems Integration Lab, Technion - Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, 32000 Israel.
¹⁰ Bell Adapt Ltd, Hamilton, 3210 New Zealand.
¹¹ Environmental Planning Programme, School of Social Sciences, University of Waikato, Te Whare Wananga o Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand.
¹² Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning & Public Policy, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ USA.
¹³ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan.
¹⁴ The Oceanographic Research Institute, Durban, South Africa.
¹⁵ Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM), Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Dhaka, 1000 Bangladesh.
¹⁶ University of Ghana, Accra, Ghana.
¹⁷ School of Planning and Architecture, Vijayawada, Andhra Pradesh India.
¹⁸ Geological Survey of Canada, Lands and Minerals Sector, Natural Resources Canada 601 Booth Street, Ottawa, ON Canada.
¹⁹ Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington, DC USA.
²⁰ College of Environmental Design, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley California, USA.
²¹ Institute of Remote Sensing and Earth Sciences, School of Information Science and Technology, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou, 311121 China.
²² University of the West of England, Bristol, UK.
²³ Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Southampton, Boldrewood Campus, Burgess Road, Southampton, UK.
²⁴ Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries affairs, Busan, Republic of Korea.
²⁵ Department of Planning and Natural Resources, St. Croix, USVI USA.
²⁶ Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Environment, Aspendale, VIC Australia.
²⁷ Global and Local Environment Co-creation Institute, Ibaraki University, Ibaraki, Japan.
²⁸ National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research, Auckland, New Zealand.
²⁹ Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, Ibaraki University, Ibaraki, Japan.

PMID: 38665203
PMCID: PMC11041751
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-00703-x

Abstract

Including sea-level rise (SLR) projections in planning and implementing coastal adaptation is crucial. Here we analyze the first global survey on the use of SLR projections for 2050 and 2100. Two-hundred and fifty-three coastal practitioners engaged in adaptation/planning from 49 countries provided complete answers to the survey which was distributed in nine languages - Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Hebrew, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese and Spanish. While recognition of the threat of SLR is almost universal, only 72% of respondents currently utilize SLR projections. Generally, developing countries have lower levels of utilization. There is no global standard in the use of SLR projections: for locations using a standard data structure, 53% are planning using a single projection, while the remainder are using multiple projections, with 13% considering a low-probability high-end scenario. Countries with histories of adaptation and consistent national support show greater assimilation of SLR projections into adaptation decisions. This research provides new insights about current planning practices and can inform important ongoing efforts on the application of the science that is essential to the promotion of effective adaptation.

Keywords: Climate-change adaptation; Environmental studies; Geography.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interestsThe authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

**Fig. 1. Study scope and use of sea-level rise projections in planning.**
Percent of respondents by continent (A) and coastal region (B) who are using sea-level rise in coastal planning processes and the countries (in gray) that provided responses. See Supplementary Table 2 for a list and details of coastal regions.

**Fig. 2. Structures of sea-level rise projections used globally.**
Respondents formally structure the use of sea-level rise projections for planning purposes in four ways: A is a singular estimate, B is a low and a high estimate, C is a low, intermediate, and high estimate, and D is a low, intermediate, high, and high-end estimate. Shown are aggregated responses for five distinct geographical regions and the globe.

**Fig. 3. Comparison of sea-level rise projections in planning and available science.**
Left: The SLR projections (in meters) for 2100, which respondents use in their coastal plans and guidance documents. Projections are grouped by the four projection structures (A to D) shown in Fig. 2 and shown as box plots with median values as the dark center line, the box representing the 25th to 75th percentiles, and the whiskers showing the full range of survey responses. Right: The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) global projections show the “likely” ranges between the 17th and 83rd percentile.

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References

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[1] Wong, P. P. et al. Coastal systems and low-lying areas. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ed. [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach,M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White) 361–409 (Cambridge University Press, 2014).

[2] Wong, P. P. et al. Coastal systems and low-lying areas. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ed. [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach,M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White) 361–409 (Cambridge University Press, 2014).

[3] Fox-Kemper, B. et al. Ocean, cryosphere and sea level change. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change 12 files, 155.5 kB (2021) 10.5285/77B64C55-7166-4A06-9DEF-2E400398E452.

[4] Fox-Kemper, B. et al. Ocean, cryosphere and sea level change. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change 12 files, 155.5 kB (2021) 10.5285/77B64C55-7166-4A06-9DEF-2E400398E452.

[5] Fyfe, J., Fox-Kemper, B., Kopp, R. & Garner, G. Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Figure SPM.8 (v20210809). NERC EDS Cent. Environ. Data Anal. (2021) 10.5285/98af2184e13e4b91893ab72f301790db.

[6] Fyfe, J., Fox-Kemper, B., Kopp, R. & Garner, G. Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Figure SPM.8 (v20210809). NERC EDS Cent. Environ. Data Anal. (2021) 10.5285/98af2184e13e4b91893ab72f301790db.

[7] Kulp SA, Strauss BH. New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding. Nat. Commun. 2019;10:4844. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z. - DOI - PMC - PubMed

[8] Kulp SA, Strauss BH. New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding. Nat. Commun. 2019;10:4844. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z. - DOI - PMC - PubMed

[9] Bindoff, N. L. et al. Changing ocean, marine ecosystems, and dependent communities. in IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (eds. Pörtner, H.-O. et al.) 142 (2019).

[10] Bindoff, N. L. et al. Changing ocean, marine ecosystems, and dependent communities. in IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (eds. Pörtner, H.-O. et al.) 142 (2019).

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Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation

Affiliations

Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation

Authors

Affiliations

Abstract

Conflict of interest statement

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References

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