Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters

doi:10.1126/science.abo1324

. 2023 Jan 6;379(6627):78-83.

doi: 10.1126/science.abo1324. Epub 2023 Jan 5.

Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters

David R Rounce^{1

2}, Regine Hock^{2

3}, Fabien Maussion⁴, Romain Hugonnet^{5

6

7}, William Kochtitzky^{8

9}, Matthias Huss^{5

6

10}, Etienne Berthier⁷, Douglas Brinkerhoff¹¹, Loris Compagno^{5

6}, Luke Copland⁸, Daniel Farinotti^{5

6}, Brian Menounos^{12

13}, Robert W McNabb¹⁴

Affiliations

¹ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
² Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA.
³ Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
⁴ Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria.
⁵ Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland.
⁶ Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
⁷ LEGOS, Université de Toulouse, CNES, CNRS, IRD, UPS, Toulouse, France.
⁸ Department of Geography, Environment and Geomatics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
⁹ School of Marine and Environmental Programs, University of New England, Biddeford, ME, USA.
¹⁰ Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland.
¹¹ Department of Computer Science, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA.
¹² Geography Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, BC, Canada.
¹³ Hakai Institute, Campbell River, BC, Canada.
¹⁴ School of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Ulster University, Coleraine, UK.

PMID: 36603094
DOI: 10.1126/science.abo1324

Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters

David R Rounce et al. Science. 2023.

. 2023 Jan 6;379(6627):78-83.

doi: 10.1126/science.abo1324. Epub 2023 Jan 5.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
² Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA.
³ Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
⁴ Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria.
⁵ Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland.
⁶ Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
⁷ LEGOS, Université de Toulouse, CNES, CNRS, IRD, UPS, Toulouse, France.
⁸ Department of Geography, Environment and Geomatics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
⁹ School of Marine and Environmental Programs, University of New England, Biddeford, ME, USA.
¹⁰ Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland.
¹¹ Department of Computer Science, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA.
¹² Geography Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, BC, Canada.
¹³ Hakai Institute, Campbell River, BC, Canada.
¹⁴ School of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Ulster University, Coleraine, UK.

PMID: 36603094
DOI: 10.1126/science.abo1324

Abstract

Glacier mass loss affects sea level rise, water resources, and natural hazards. We present global glacier projections, excluding the ice sheets, for shared socioeconomic pathways calibrated with data for each glacier. Glaciers are projected to lose 26 ± 6% (+1.5°C) to 41 ± 11% (+4°C) of their mass by 2100, relative to 2015, for global temperature change scenarios. This corresponds to 90 ± 26 to 154 ± 44 millimeters sea level equivalent and will cause 49 ± 9 to 83 ± 7% of glaciers to disappear. Mass loss is linearly related to temperature increase and thus reductions in temperature increase reduce mass loss. Based on climate pledges from the Conference of the Parties (COP26), global mean temperature is projected to increase by +2.7°C, which would lead to a sea level contribution of 115 ± 40 millimeters and cause widespread deglaciation in most mid-latitude regions by 2100.

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Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters

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Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters

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