2016 United States House of Representatives election in Montana
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  Zinke: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Juneau: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Montana |
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The 2016 United States House of Representatives election in Montana was held on November 8, 2016, to elect the U.S. representative from Montana's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.
At the time, Montana's congressional district had a PVI of R+7. Republican Ryan Zinke, who was first elected in 2014, is the incumbent. Zinke was re-elected in 2016.[1][2] He faced no primary opposition. Denise Juneau, who is the Montana State Superintendent of Public Instruction, was the lone Democrat to file for election.[3][4] The primaries were held on June 7.
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]- Ryan Zinke, incumbent
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ryan Zinke (incumbent) | 144,660 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 144,660 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Denise Juneau | 112,821 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 112,821 | 100.0 | ||
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[6] | Likely R | November 7, 2016 |
| Daily Kos Elections[7] | Likely R | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg[8] | Likely R | November 3, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] | Likely R | November 7, 2016 |
| RCP[10] | Likely R | October 31, 2016 |
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ryan Zinke (R) |
Denise Juneau (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon[11] | October 10–12, 2016 | 1,003 | ± 3.2% | 53% | 40% | 1%[12] | 6% |
| Montana State University Billings[13] | October 3–10, 2016 | 590 | ± 4.0% | 50% | 31% | — | 19% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ryan Zinke (incumbent) | 285,358 | 56.19% | +0.78% | |
| Democratic | Denise Juneau | 205,919 | 40.55% | +0.14% | |
| Libertarian | Rick Breckenridge | 16,554 | 3.26% | −0.92% | |
| Total votes | 507,831 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "Election 2016 Results: Bullock Re-elected Governor, Zinke Cruises". Flathead Beacon. November 8, 2016. Retrieved November 15, 2016.
- ^ "Zinke Announces Re-election Bid; Says He Will Defend Values". Flathead Beacon. Associated Press. March 6, 2016. Retrieved May 2, 2016.
- ^ "Denise Juneau launches campaign for Montana's U.S. House seat". Billings Gazette. Associated Press. November 4, 2015. Retrieved May 2, 2016.
- ^ Dennison, Mike. "Zinke and Juneau raising big bucks for U.S. House battle". KXLF. Retrieved May 2, 2016.
- ^ a b "2016 Statewide Montana Primary Election" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 10, 2016. Retrieved June 22, 2016.
- ^ "2016 House Race Ratings for November 7, 2016". House: Race Ratings. Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 12, 2016.
- ^ "Daily Kos Elections House race ratings: Initial ratings for 2016". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved November 7, 2016.
- ^ "2016 House Ratings (November 3, 2016)". House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
- ^ "2016 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 7, 2016.
- ^ "Battle for the House 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 31, 2016.
- ^ Mason-Dixon
- ^ Rick Breckenridge with 1%
- ^ Montana State University Billings
- ^ "2016 General Election" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved December 9, 2016.
External links
[edit]
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