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2026 United States Senate election in Oregon

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2026 United States Senate election in Oregon

← 2020 November 3, 2026 2032 →
 
Party Democratic Republican

Incumbent U.S. senator

Jeff Merkley
Democratic



The 2026 United States Senate election in Oregon will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Oregon. Incumbent senator Jeff Merkley, who was re-elected with 56.9% of the vote in 2020, has not announced if he intends to run for a fourth term.

Background

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Oregon is generally considered to be a Democratic stronghold, having not elected a Republican to the U.S. senate since 2002 (or any Republican statewide since 2016). Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, all but one seat in Oregon's U.S. House congressional delegation, and, since January 2025, hold supermajorities in both houses of the Oregon Legislative Assembly.[1] Merkley was first elected in 2008, and was re-elected twice, in 2014 and 2020.

Despite this, Republicans have been performing better in recent races, gaining seats in two of the last three legislative elections,[2][3] and Republicans on the national level have begun to put more resources into Oregon candidates.[4][5][6]

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Potential

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  • Jeff Merkley, incumbent U.S. senator (decision expected by June 30, 2025)[7]

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2025
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Jeff Merkley (D) $3,730,240 $3,044,327 $4,491,474
Source: Federal Election Commission[8]

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Inside Elections[9] Solid D Feb 20, 2025
The Cook Political Report[10] Solid D Feb 13, 2025
Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] Safe D Mar 12, 2025
Race To The WH[12] Safe D Apr 8, 2025

References

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  1. ^ Shumway, Julia (2024-11-27). "Democrats win supermajority in Oregon House, Senate, with narrow win in Woodburn • Oregon Capital Chronicle". Oregon Capital Chronicle. Retrieved 2025-01-27.
  2. ^ Staff, FOX 12 (2022-11-10). "Democrats lose supermajority in Oregon State Senate and House". KPTV. Retrieved 2025-01-27.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  3. ^ McInally, Mike (2022-12-16). "Oregon GOP hailed end to Democrats' 'supermajority' but will that matter much? • Oregon Capital Chronicle". Oregon Capital Chronicle. Retrieved 2025-01-27.
  4. ^ Oregonian/OregonLive, Grant Stringer | The (2022-09-21). "National Republicans inject big money into races for Oregon Legislature, amid national bid to wrest control of more statehouses". oregonlive. Retrieved 2025-01-27.
  5. ^ "Dark money group targets Oregon swing districts with new mailers, ads". opb. Retrieved 2025-01-27.
  6. ^ "With fundraising flagging, Oregon Republicans' ambitions rely on Greg Walden". KLCC | NPR for Oregonians. 2024-09-12. Retrieved 2025-01-27.
  7. ^ "Murmurs: Merkley Addresses 2026 Plans". Willamette Week. April 16, 2025. Retrieved April 16, 2025. As usual, Jeff and [his wife], Mary [Sorteberg], will make a formal campaign announcement regarding 2026 sometime this quarter.
  8. ^ "2026 Election United States Senate - Oregon". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved April 23, 2025.
  9. ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 14, 2025.
  10. ^ "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
  11. ^ "2026 Senate ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
  12. ^ "2026 Senate Forecast". Race to the WH. Retrieved 2025-03-19.