Gov. Donald L. Carcieri, a Republican ending his second term, is leaving office because of term limits. And while Republicans have held the office for almost 16 years, the race to succeed Mr. Carcieri seems to be a tossup between a Democrat and an independent. The independent is Lincoln Chafee, a former senator who left the Republican Party in 2007 on the grounds that it had become too conservative. He is running against Frank Caprio, a Democrat and the state treasurer, and John Robitaille, a former aide to Mr. Carcieri. Mr. Chafee is relying on name recognition — his family has played a prominent role in Rhode Island politics for more than a century – and the fact that about half of the state’s voters are not affiliated with a party. But Mr. Caprio and the Democratic Governors Association are hitting him hard on a proposal to broaden the state’s sales tax.
— Abby Goodnough#2010: Tweets From The Times
Previous Election Results
| Race | ||
|---|---|---|
| Loading Data |
100% reporting Sept. 14 Primary Results
| Republican | John Robitaille | 13,050 | 70% | |
| Victor Moffitt | 5,553 | 30% | ||
| Democrat | Frank Caprio | uncontested | ||
Source: Preliminary vote totals from The Associated Press
FiveThirtyEight Forecast
| Caprio | Robitaille | Chafee | |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Projected Vote
Margin of Error: ± 8.9%
|
31.8% | 27.9% | 36.5% |
|
Chance of Winning Seat
|
25.6%
|
8.9%
|
65.6%
|
State Demographics
| Race and ethnicity | State | U.S. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| White | 78.7% |
|
65.9% |
| Black | 4.7% |
|
12.1% |
| Hispanic | 11.3% |
|
15.1% |
| Asian | 2.7% |
|
4.3% |
| Native American | 0.4% |
|
0.7% |
| Income | State | U.S. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median income | $55,327 |
|
$52,175 |
| Poverty rate | 11.6% |
|
9.6% |
| Below $25,000 | 23.3% |
|
23.2% |
| $25,000-$50,000 | 22.1% |
|
24.8% |
| $50,000-$100,000 | 32.0% |
|
31.2% |
| $100,000-$200,000 | 18.7% |
|
16.6% |
| $200,000 or more | 3.9% |
|
4.2% |
| Education | State | U.S. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| High school graduate | 83.0% |
|
84.5% |
| Bachelor's degree or higher | 29.8% |
|
27.4% |
| Age | State | U.S. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 18 | 22.0% |
|
24.5% |
| 65 and older | 14.0% |
|
12.6% |
Source: Census Bureau
