2026 United States Senate election in Kentucky
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The 2026 United States Senate election in Kentucky will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Kentucky. Incumbent seven-term Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who was first elected in 1984, and most recently re-elected with 57.8% of the vote in 2020, declined to run for re-election.[1] This decision follows his earlier announcement to retire as Senate Republican Leader after the 2024 Senate elections.
This will be the first open Senate election in Kentucky since 2010, and the first to this seat since 1972.
Background
[edit]Kentucky, a Southern state in the Bible Belt, is generally considered to be a Republican stronghold, having not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1992. Republicans control both U.S. Senate seats, all but two statewide offices, supermajorities in both houses of the Kentucky General Assembly, and all but one seat in Kentucky's U.S. House congressional delegation.[2] However, Democrats control the governorship and lieutenant-governorship which flipped from Republican control in 2019.[3]
McConnell was first elected in 1984 and was re-elected in six subsequent elections.[4]
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Andy Barr, U.S. representative from Kentucky’s 6th congressional district (2013–present)[5]
- Daniel Cameron, former Kentucky Attorney General (2019–2024) and nominee for governor in 2023[6]
Publicly expressed interest
[edit]- Nate Morris, business conglomerate owner[7]
Potential
[edit]- Kelly Craft, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations (2019–2021) and candidate for governor in 2023[6]
- Scott Jennings, political strategist[8]
- Ryan Quarles, president of the Kentucky Community and Technical College System (2024–present), former Kentucky Commissioner of Agriculture (2016–2024), and candidate for governor in 2023[9]
- Robert Stivers, president of the Kentucky Senate (2013–present) from the 25th district (1997–present)[10]
Declined
[edit]- James Comer, U.S. Representative for Kentucky's 1st congressional district (2016–present) (running for re-election)[11]
- Thomas Massie, U.S. Representative for Kentucky's 4th congressional district (2012–present)[12] (running for re-election)[13]
- Mitch McConnell, incumbent U.S. Senator (1985–present)[14]
- David Osborne, speaker of the Kentucky House of Representatives (2018–present) from the 59th district (2005–present)[10]
- Damon Thayer, former state senator from the 17th district (2003–2025)[15]
Endorsements
[edit]Andy Barr
- U.S. representatives
- Hal Rogers, KY-05 (1981–present)[5]
- Steve Scalise, House Majority Leader (2023–present) and LA-01 (2008–present)[16]
- Elise Stefanik, NY-21 (2015–present)[16]
- State senators
- Amanda Mays Bledsoe, SD-12 (2023–present)[17]
- Scott Madon, SD-29 (2025–present)[17]
- Phillip Wheeler, SD-31 (2019–present)[17]
- State representatives
- Individuals
- Riley Gaines, activist and former swimmer[18]
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2025 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Andy Barr (R) | $1,853,014 | $195,252 | $5,350,839 |
| Daniel Cameron (R) | $507,656 | $52,260 | $455,396 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[19] | |||
Polling
[edit]Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Andy Barr |
Daniel Cameron |
Kelly Craft |
Thomas Massie |
Nate Morris |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[20][A] | April 13–15, 2025 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 18% | 44% | – | – | 2% | – | 36% |
| co/efficient (R)[21] | February 25–26, 2025 | 1,134 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 18% | 39% | – | – | 3% | 11%[b] | 31% |
| co/efficient (R)[22] | December 2–3, 2024 | 1,298 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 12% | 37% | 6% | – | 1% | 8% | 36% |
| 10% | 32% | 3% | 16% | 0% | – | 39% |
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Pamela Stevenson, minority leader of the Kentucky House of Representatives (2025–present) from the 43rd district (2021–present) and nominee for Attorney General in 2023[23]
Potential
[edit]- Rocky Adkins, senior advisor to governor Andy Beshear (2019–present), former minority leader of the Kentucky House of Representatives (2017–2019), and candidate for governor in 2019[24]
- Amy McGrath, member of the U.S. Naval Academy Board of Visitors (2022–present), nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020, and nominee for Kentucky's 6th congressional district in 2018[24]
Declined
[edit]- Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky (2019–present)[25]
- Jacqueline Coleman, Lieutenant Governor of Kentucky (2019–present)[26]
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2025 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Pamela Stevenson (D) | $70,146 | $37,828 | $32,318 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[19] | |||
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections[27] | Solid R | Feb 20, 2025 |
| The Cook Political Report[28] | Solid R | Feb 13, 2025 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[29] | Safe R | Mar 12, 2025 |
| Race To The WH[30] | Safe R | Apr 27, 2025 |
Notes
[edit]Partisan clients
- ^ Poll commissioned by Cameron's campaign
References
[edit]- ^ Schreiner, Bruce; Freking, Kevin (February 20, 2025). "Sen. Mitch McConnell won't seek reelection in 2026, ending long tenure as Republican power broker". The Associated Press. Washington, D.C. Retrieved February 20, 2025.
- ^ "Kentucky House and Senate Republicans maintain supermajority". kaco.org. Retrieved December 5, 2024.
- ^ Golshan, Tara (November 6, 2019). "Democrat Andy Beshear just unseated Kentucky's Trump-loving governor". Vox. Retrieved December 5, 2024.
- ^ McCausland, Phil (November 4, 2020). "Sen. Mitch McConnell wins another term in Kentucky, NBC News projects". NBC News. Retrieved December 5, 2024.
- ^ a b Horn, Austin (April 22, 2025). "Kentucky Rep. Andy Barr launches bid for U.S. Senate, gets Rogers' support". Lexington Herald Leader. Retrieved April 22, 2025.
- ^ a b Horn, Austin (February 20, 2025). "Daniel Cameron launches 2026 U.S. Senate bid on heels of Mitch McConnell announcement". Lexington Herald-Leader. Retrieved February 20, 2025.
- ^ Fields, Ashleigh (February 12, 2025). "Businessman says he won't wait for McConnell retirement if he decides to run for Senate seat". The Hill.
- ^ Arcand, Cameron (February 26, 2025). "CNN pundit Scott Jennings encouraged to run for McConnell's open Senate seat". Fox News. Retrieved February 27, 2025.
- ^ Kamisar, Ben (February 20, 2025). "Potential Mitch McConnell successors begin lining up for Kentucky's Senate race". NBC News. Retrieved February 20, 2025.
- ^ a b Horn, Austin; Catanese, David (February 12, 2025). "Andy Barr for Senate? KY Congressman indicates he's ready to run upon McConnell retirement". Lexington Herald-Leader. Retrieved February 12, 2025.
- ^ Catanese, David (March 21, 2024). "Who would be the front-runner for McConnell's Senate seat in 2026?". McClatchy. Retrieved March 21, 2024.
A spokesperson for Comer...relayed that Comer has no interest in running for senate even if McConnell does not seek reelection.
- ^ Rod, Marc (February 21, 2025). "McConnell's retirement stokes concerns Massie may run for Senate". Jewish Insider. Retrieved February 21, 2025.
Massie publicly floated the prospect of running for Senate on Thursday afternoon, posting a poll on X asking followers whether he should remain in the House, run for Senate or run for governor.
- ^ Walker, Jackson (March 11, 2025). "Thomas Massie announces reelection bid as Trump vows to back primary challenger". The National Desk. Retrieved March 11, 2025.
- ^ Schreiner, Bruce (February 20, 2025). "Sen. Mitch McConnell won't seek reelection in 2026, ending long tenure as Republican power broker". Associated Press. Retrieved February 20, 2025.
- ^ Horsley, McKenna (February 20, 2025). "Kentucky's McConnell not seeking reelection to U.S. Senate in 2026". Kentucky Lantern. Retrieved February 24, 2025.
Former Kentucky Senate Republican Floor Leader Damon Thayer told the Kentucky Lantern that...he does not see himself pursuing a run for the open seat.
- ^ a b Kelly, Erin. "Rep. Andy Barr touts GOP endorsements, looking to secure Trump's support". spectrumlocalnews.com. Spectrum News 1. Retrieved April 24, 2025.
- ^ a b c d Horsley, McKenna; Lucke, Jamie (April 23, 2025). "Race is on in KY for U.S. Senate — and Trump's nod — as second Republican announces • Kentucky Lantern". Kentucky Lantern. Retrieved April 24, 2025.
- ^ Pinski, Hannah (April 22, 2025). "Andy Barr starts Senate campaign, announces he will run for Mitch McConnell's seat in 2026". The Courier-Journal. Retrieved April 24, 2025.
- ^ a b "2026 Election United States Senate - Kentucky". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved April 23, 2025.
- ^ McLaughlin, John (April 21, 2025). "Kentucky Statewide – Republican Primary for U.S. Senate" (PDF). Cameron for Kentucky. Retrieved April 24, 2025.
- ^ Weigel, David (March 3, 2025). "McConnell protégé Cameron leads in early Kentucky Senate primary poll". Semafor. Retrieved March 3, 2025.
- ^ Horn, Austin (February 11, 2025). "Is Daniel Cameron running for Senate? Former KY AG says he 'would be honored to serve'". Lexington Herald Leader. Retrieved April 24, 2025.
- ^ Anderson, Mario (February 10, 2025). "In Focus: House Minority Leader Pamela Stevenson talks 2025 legislative priorities in Kentucky General Assembly". Spectrum News. Retrieved February 12, 2025.
Stevenson also confirmed during this interview that she is running in the Democratic primary for Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell's seat in 2026.
- ^ a b Horn, Austin (March 6, 2025). "With Beshear ruling out Senate run, some Kentucky Democrats' attention turns to top ally". Lexington Herald-Leader.
- ^ Karyn, Czar (March 1, 2024). "Beshear rules out possible Senate run in 2026". WUKY.
- ^ Barrett, Alexis (February 20, 2025). "Daniel Cameron, Pam Stevenson announce 2026 Senate bids". Marshall County Tribune-Courier. Retrieved February 20, 2025.
JT Henderson, a representative for Lt. Governor Jacqueline Coleman, said that Coleman is 'not interested' in running.
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 14, 2025.
- ^ "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
- ^ "2026 Senate ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
- ^ "2026 Senate Forecast". Race to the WH. Retrieved March 19, 2025.
External links
[edit]- Official campaign websites